A TIME LINE FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS - APRIL 2011:
April 03 to 10 : in the area of Japan
April 06 to 10 : in China in the Indian ocean coast
April 10 to 15 : in Turkey and Iran area
April 10 to 18 : in Indonesia
April 16 to 20 : in the Pacific region
NEWS ITEMS FOR APRIL 2011 EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS:
Peradeniya Prof predicted Japanese quake
09th April 2011, www.dailynews.lk, Asela KURULUWANSA
The earthquake which occurred in the North Eastern part of Japan on Thursday night was correctly predicted by Prof Athula Senaratne of the Peradeniya University Geology Department.
Dr. Senaratne made the prediction following a series of experiments carried out by a team of geologists led by him at the university.
He predicted that an earthquake over five points on the Richter scale will occur in Japan between April 5 and 8. His prediction appeared in our sister paper Dinamina on April 4.
More earthquakes shortly: Likely impact on South Asia
08th April 2011, www.lankapuvath.lk
With another earthquake in the offing, in the Indonesian region between April 10 and 18, as predicted by Professor Athula Senaratne of the Geological Department, Peradeniya University, and, if it happens in the shallow sea waters around 10 km in depth the impact is very likely to be felt to the South Asian region warned Prof, Senaratne.
Professor Senaratne has so far made correct predictions on future earthquakes and Tsunami situations.
Yesterday’s earthquake in Japan was the latest of his predictions to turn into reality.
He has predicted 3 more earthquakes with the next to occur in the Indonesian region between April 10 and 18.
According to him, five earthquakes are on the cards in the month of April. The countries likely to be hit are China, Indonesia, Turkey and Iran not ruling out Japan again.
The Disaster Management Centre and the National Tsunami Warning Centre in Sri Lanka are on the alert to face any such situation. The public around the coastal belt of Sri Lanka are also requested to be cautious within the period of April 10 to April 18, Prof. Senaratne noted.
The public are requested to remain calm and alert during April 10 and 18.
Five earthquakes in coming days!
07th April 2011, www.lankapuvath.lk
There is a possibility of 05 earthquakes in the world during April, Professor Athula Senarathne of the Peradeniya Geological Department told Lankapuvath.
Analyzing all earthquakes that occurred in the world, the predictions were made that between April 03 and 10 that there could be an earthquake in the areas of Japan, between April 06 and 10 in China, in the Indian ocean coast, April 10 to 15 in Indonesia, April 10-15 in Turkey and Iran area and fro, April 16-20 in the Pacific region.
The predictions made by the Professor on earthquakes in the month of March were accurate. A calendar on earthquakes and its occurrence would be prepared in future if the predictions in future are successful, added Professor Senarathne.
Be cautious next week
07th April 2011, www.newsnow.lk
The public have been advised to remain cautious between April 10 and 18 as a professor of the Peradeniya University has “predicted” an earthquake may occur in the Indonesian region during that period which may affect South Asia as well.
Professor Athula Senaratne of the Geological Department at the Peradeniya University has said that if the quake occurs in shallow sea waters around 10 km in depth then a tsunami could be generated and that may have an impact on South Asia, a State news agency said.
The Lankapuvath news agency said that Professor Senaratne has so far made correct predictions on future earthquakes and Tsunami situations and yesterday’s earthquake in Japan was the latest of his predictions to be correct.
He has predicted that three more earthquakes may occur in the Indonesian region between April 10 and 18 and overall five earthquakes are on the cards in the month of April. The countries likely to be hit are China, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran and Japan.
Lankapuvath also said that the Disaster Management Centre and the National Tsunami Warning Centre in Sri Lanka are on the alert to face any tsunami situation.
For Background Info, Please Read: Earthquake Prediction - Sri Lankan Scientists Successfully Predict New Zealand & Japan Earthquakes. Discovery Linked to Planetary Configuration
28 comments:
This is most amazing news. I too cannot understand technical background to this theory but as someone said there are lots of things under the Sun that we know nothing about.
So, Professor Senaratne don't be discouraged by adverse comments and please carry on with your research. Since you have been fairly accurate in your earthquake predictions in the past --and sincerely hope and expect your record will hold-- you will definitely be recognized as an Authority in the field and then the whole world will start listening to you, theory or not!
Until then patience and diligence!
Asela Perera
What we should NOT do is try to analyze WHY Professor Athula Senaratne's method works, but continue to observe his predictions and see how many would come true. As borne out in the past a surprising number of his predictions have come true, so let's wait and see what future will hold. This is NOT to say we are waiting for earthquakes to happen, but to see the effectiveness of his method. Anura G.
I ll believe in predication. So we have to take some precaution for this. Let me know that from you.
I guess this blog allows spammers like "Holiday in India".
keep us giving more detail
GOSL say It can not happend. Hope for the best, <8M. What the Prof: can say about next year event "Solar wave cooking of planet Earth"
Jayalath
15-04-11
He is not a honest Prof., he says he predicted a Japanese earthquake correctly. Thats a lie. What he says he prected is a aftershock (in April) and there were many aftershocks after March 11 big earthquake. We see aftershocks over 5.0M almost everyday. He purposely take just one of aftershocks and tried to cheat people as its a earthquake. His original predictions were for earthquakes, and not for aftershocks. aftershocks are usually depend mostly (if not totally) on the main earthquake. Its really stupid to cheat when he does researches. He needs to be honest.
I think out of his five earthquakes, time for two earthquakes are already over. Those are for Turkey/Iran and China. As far as we get details, these two predictions are wrong. There were not any earthquake in Turkey/Iran and in China (Pacific ocean) during the time he predicts. Still we are waiting to comment on his other three predictions (in Indonesia) as they ae valid until tomorrow. But as far as I know, still there is not any methodology in the world to predict eartquakes. so, I think at the end, we will see none of his prections came true.
I am totally taken aback by the ignorant comments people have made in this forum. Predicting Earthquakes is THE biggest problem in Earthquake science. If one says that he has solved the problem his/her work surely deserves to be published in a top journal under top review. This is not the case. These predictions are made via blogs. No one takes blog news seriously. When people don't know what's happening under the sun, that's when they can be manipulated. If I were you, I wouldn't take these predictions seriously. I suggest that you read some history: http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/perspective.html
Ok " Prof " Senaratna, none of the five earth quakes predicted by you has occured. Stop making predictions and get your head checked by a psychiatrist
I feel sorry for those who are students of this so called professor at the Peradeniya university
I strongly feel this "Prof" Senaratne is a crook. Because, he should now come out and explain why NONE of his predictions came true.
I believe ANYONE can make predictions of earthquake because given a time, an earthquake could be happening anywhere in the World.
In fact, I have perfected a system, by a very long study of course, to predict earthquakes by noticing which way crows turn my television antenna!
Want any predictions? Well, it's FREE!
Ajith Silva
haha..what a bunch of village idiots. your only worry and concern is about disproving ones professional conclusion about a certain disaster that "might" occur. so rather than taking precautions to safeguard your own pathetic lifes, you all just want to sit on your worthless butts, and criticize someone who's actually doing something to keep people safe regardless of his accuracy on the occurrence of his predictions. what can yol possibly bring on to the table to prove that he's wrong? he has algorithms,and research experience, and most of his predictions were correct, what do you have?
Someone has got really angry for making comments about this quack professor.In his press releases he has mentioned that he has " concrete evidence to" prove that his predicted earthquakes would occur.Now he should explain why it did not occur. Am I wrong Vidi ?
:) im not angry, its just sad how far people like yourself would aimlessly go trying to disprove one's professional opinion. i mean what are you possibly going to gain by it? there's always a bunch of jobless idiots criticizing one's effort to do something worthwhile. his accuracy aside all he was trying to do was to make people be on alert. he only stated that there is going to be an earth quake on the Sumatra region, which could cause turbulence on he sea bed around sri lanka. which news article did u read? even if his predictions were wrong, what is it to u anonymous? i know these things because i took part in his research.
and its quite obvious all these allegations are coming from one source.
Vidi and Vidu, you may not be knowing how the people in the Tsunami effected areas spent their days after your professor,s predictions. How come, other professors including Prof Kapila Dahanayaka totally rejected these predictions. Are you going to say that they are also idiots ?
Instead of criticizing a scientist who proved his capabilities through out his career, in different fields, why not discuss about what made him to feel so strongly to come forward with such predictions and what really made his predictions to go wrong. There can be some values in his study which is not possibly for such predictions but for something else or someone to develop for such predictions at a later date. A scientist with a proven record and having 4 patents cannot be a fool but possible to get in to an illusion because of the perfect fit of data sets. The importance here is to have knowledge on what he exactly observed and what methodology he used to make the predictions
And lastly, a note to you vid and/or vidu. If you did work with Professor Senaratne, your antagonistic attitude, uneducated remarks and wanton disregard for the profession are ineffective and undermine the credibility of a Professor you so adamantly revere beyond logic. Academia is about the dissemination of ideas and thoughts that are mutually exchanged, criticised and explored. Every scientist and academic has a professional duty to deduce, prove and present a theory in a logical and reproducible manner. Anything less is pure incompetence and your loutish comments serve only to reveal your apparent lack of education and immaturity.
And lastly, a note to you vid and/or vidu. If you did work with Professor Senaratne, your antagonistic attitude, uneducated remarks and wanton disregard for the profession are ineffective and undermine the credibility of a Professor you so adamantly revere beyond logic. Academia is about the dissemination of ideas and thoughts that are mutually exchanged, criticised and explored. Every scientist and academic has a professional duty to deduce, prove and present a theory in a logical and reproducible manner. Anything less is pure incompetence and your loutish comments serve only to reveal your apparent lack of education and immaturity.
Professor Senaratne’s astrological predictions are severely problematic for academic and practical reasons. Firstly, on a purely theoretical basis, there are significant limitations to Professor Senaratne hypothesis. A valid earthquake prediction must contain the expected magnitude with error limits, the statistical estimate as to the probability that the prediction will eventuate, and most critically, the data from which the prediction was derived must be verifiable and the analysis must be reproducible. Professor Senaratne has done none of the above. He has ambiguously alluded to some vague planetary configuration, without providing any solid data to support his conclusions. Every academic, especially in his profession, understands the most basic principle that any new theory must be first tested and defined by probabilistic parameters or by firm values. Whether a prediction is scientific or amateurish is not based on who makes the prediction, but on how the prediction is made and tested. Otherwise, any charlatan could stand on his soap box and proclaim that the world is coming to an end. As an academic from a respectable university, Professor Senaratne should have first published his findings in a journal to be explored, analysed and validated by his professional peers, rather than prematurely broadcasting his unproven theories on the television and online blogs. Stacking your reputation upon an unfounded conclusion severely undercuts the credibility of the prediction, any value that may be had in his research, and most importantly, the Peradeniya faculty and his profession as a whole.
Further, his predictions based on the correlation between earthquakes and the position of major solar system bodies is not a new or revolutionary concept, but a technique that has been researched by other academics in the field and is still at the test stage. Declaring his findings as his own, without the support of the scientific community, is not radical or groundbreaking. It is not the pursuit of “real science”, but a grandiose claim for attention and false notoriety. Professor Senaratne should also be mindful of many highly regarded scientists that have been discredited and sued for similar fantastical pseudoscientific theories. Earthquakes in hot spot regions like Indonesia or Japan are a daily occurrence. It is not science to state the obvious and have it occur.
Moreover, scientific speculation is one thing, but causing public alarm and panic is quite another. Professor Senaratne predictions caused mass hysteria and havoc on such a scale that the Disaster Management Centre in Sri Lanka had to take special measures to control the chaos. Earthquake predictions from a Professor of a reputable university are obviously taken seriously, particularly by the public who may not recognise astrology masquerading as true science.
Professor Senaratne has a professional duty to ensure that any information in the public domain strengthens, rather than undermines, community awareness. But by crying wolf and failing to follow the proper government channels, Professor Senaratne’s predictions undercut credible earthquake predictions that may actually save lives in the future. I hope the Sri Lankan authorities will ensure that such junk-science is not released precipitously to the press. The university too should be cautious, as its own reputation is now called into question and future erroneous proclamations may expose the faculty to legal prosecution.
Great post, Thanks for sharing. I would like to visit regular here .
Will planets positions help?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ823cxPaJo
there are many trageic happenings all around the world. Is the world coming to an end?
Would it not be too difficult to predit earthquakes with a graph like this in front of you?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
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